Tuesday, 16 December 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities opened higher (intra high sp'2018), but saw a strong morning swing lower, with a new cycle low of sp'1982, and settling -12pts @ 1989. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for a key turn around this Wednesday's FOMC.


sp'daily5



R2K


Trans


Summary

So.. the big sp'2000 threshold failed to hold, along with a daily close decisively under the 50dma. Understandably, many equity bears will be looking for a hit of the 200dma (near the 50% fib retrace of 2050) in the coming days.


Where now?

As has been noted since last week, the 'FOMC clock is ticking'. On no outlook can I see sustained equity downside after this Wednesday's FOMC announcement.

It is notable that the 'old leader' did manage a net daily gain today, although that was no doubt aided by the continuing collapse in oil prices.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...