Saturday, 13 December 2014

Powerful net weekly declines

The week concluded with another wave of rather significant declines, sp -33pts @ 2002, which made for a net weekly decline of 73pts (-3.5%). With VIX settling the week at 21.08... the crash callers will no doubt be crawling out of the woodwork again.

sp'weekly6 - with fib retrace


*the first closing weekly red candle since early October.

It has been a long week.. but a VERY interesting one.. lots of strong bounces... but much more significant down waves.

With the VIX back in the low 20s, I truly understand why some will be getting especially bearish for the remainder of the year.. and into early 2015.

However.. a move to sp'2000 was expected.. along with VIX 20s... and now that we're here.. its a case of how long until the next up wave begins.

Best guess.... a few days of chop around sp'2000... and then up.. once the FOMC meeting is out of the way.

Bonus update on Russia

With oil prices breaking a new cycle low of $57.34, not surprisingly, the Russian market had yet another terrible day...

Russia, monthly

A weekly close on key support of 800, but with an intra day low of 784. The door is now open to the 500s, but a bounce is going to happen if Oil starts a multi-week rebound - which I'm guessing it will.

Sincerely... have a good weekend

Goodnight from London

*the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes