Thursday, 20 November 2014

Daily Wrap

The bigger daily equity/VIX cycles are suggestive of a short term top of sp'2056, with some degree of moderate retrace... probably sub'2000.. into early December. Broader trend remains powerfully higher though... to the sp'2100s.. and beyond.




So... a daily net decline for most indexes, but still... nothing significant.. not least reflected in the VIX which remains very subdued.

Best guess... a retrace to the sp'1980/50 zone.... which might equate to VIX 18/20 by first week of December.

Looking ahead

There is actually a great deal of data in the early morning... 

CPI, Weekly jobless claims, PMI manu', Phil' fed, existing home sales, leading indi'

*Two fed officials are on the loose, not least the Dudley... Mr Market will be listening

A retrace to sp'1910?

A regular reader (hello JC) reminded me of the 1910 level, which would be a 61% fib retrace. That is a mere 0.5% above the CRITICAL 1900 threshold. All those touting a giant expanding wedge should be desperate for a break <1900 before year end... which if it occurred would re-open up the original downside target.. somewhere in the 1750/1650 area.

sp'daily3 - fib levels

The problem is.. how are we going to break 7% lower to 1910, never mind actually breaking and holding under 1900? I just can't see it, not least with the BoJ putting a bid under (quite literally) the entire world equity market.

As ever... one day at a time... but for now... I can't see a retrace of much significance.

yours...... depressingly... 'broadly bullish' into late 2015/early 2016.

Goodnight from London