Volatility back on the rise

With US equities cooling from a morning high of sp'1949, the VIX rebounded from a morning low of 15.56, settling +11.1% @ 17.87 (intra high 18.43). Near term outlook is for 19/20, before renewed melt lower to the 15/14s by the FOMC of next Wednesday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

With equities back on the slide, it was not surprising to see VIX break out of the big down trend from 31.06 - as best seen on the hourly chart.

A short term bounce to the big 20 threshold looks viable, I'd be surprised if we break much above 21/22..... and that would need at least sp'1910/00.

As things are.. best guess, sp'1950/60 with VIX 15/14s.... before a possible 'crashy' setup for November.

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more later.. on the indexes