Wednesday 22 October 2014

3pm update - weakness into the close

With the short term upward trend broken, equities look set for some weakness into the close. Best case for the bears, sp'1925/20, with VIX 19s. Primary downside for Thur/Friday, 1910/00 with VIX 19/20s... broader upside target... 1950/60s with VIX 15/14s.


sp'60min


Summary

Interesting day.. and we have a short term top of sp'1949.

A B, 2, or whatever you want to call it, down wave to 1910/00 looks very likely, completing either tomorrow or Friday.

In either case, I still expect another wave higher to the 1950/60s next week.

Frankly, the setup looks good for the bears next week...
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3.15pm.. chop chop.. sp'1935.... a close <1930 looks ... probable. .with VIX 18s.

Notable weakness, BTU -5%.. ugly... although not as bad as CREE -16.8% on poor earnings.


3.28pm... 1934... VIX 17s....

As many note... Oil is very weak, -2.3%, and that is once again impacting the broader market.  I'm still looking for 70/65..if main market rocked before year end.


3.42pm.. a nice 1% swing from the morning high of 1949.... with VIX 18s...

On no basis though does the market look set for sustained trading <1900 in the near term.

First things first...lets get to the FOMC... next Wednesday.


3.50pm... A somewhat fun day.... sp'1926.. VIX 18s..... bodes for a weak Thursday..at least for part of the day.

back at the close......