I'm not in love... with the upside

With the equity bears breaking a new multi-week low of sp'1820, with VIX in the 31s, the bears are most certainly still in full control. A significant bounce is increasingly likely in the near term, but a bounce... is all it will be.


sp'weekly7

Summary

*I'm guessing we will fall a little lower <1820 before the week is done, so, that 1820 floor - with fib retraces, will very likely need to be slightly altered.
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So.. another fierce down day in market land, as FULLY confirmed in the VIX, breaking the 2012 high (27s), with a new cycle high of 31.06. Just reflect upon the fact that the VIX was in the 11s... a mere four weeks ago.
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Broader downside

The following remains the primary outlook, it assumes an intermediate top of sp'2019.... the sp'1650s are now the primary target.. the first real opportunity of that level will be mid/late November.

sp'weekly9 - fib levels

World markets broken

As I noted a few weeks ago, there are serious tremblings in many of the world equity markets. The UK market is also now decisively broken.

UK, monthly

Regardless of any bounce into late Oct/early November, the FTSE looks set for 5500/5250.


Looking ahead

A very busy Thursday... with no less than FIVE fed officials due to speak.

Econ-data - jobs, indust' prod', phil fed', housing market.

*there is very minor QE of around $0.25bn or so.
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In love with the downside

For you regular readers out there, Oscar Carboni is someone you know I regularly highlight. One of his big phrases is 'Do NOT fall in love with the downside'. Indeed, that has been a correct trading approach since 2009. With the monthly cycles now utterly broken, its time for even Mr C' to file for divorce from the bull..  or at least a temporary separation until spring 2015.


An old favourite of mine... from the early 1990s...



Goodnight from London