Friday, 17 October 2014

First major wave down almost complete

Since the Alibaba (now infamous) top of sp'2019 of Sept'19th, equities have seen what appears to be a clear 5 wave decline, with a VIX that has exploded to levels not seen since late 2011. A bounce looks due from 1815/00 zone... back into the sp'1900s.


sp'weekly7


sp'weekly9 - fib retrace levels


Summary

A long day, I'm tired... so this needs to be brief.

Market looks set for a marginally lower low (but not all indexes) tomorrow/early Monday. From there, a major bounce... but a bounce...is all it will be.
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Looking ahead

The week concludes with housing stats and consumer sentiment. The Yellen is due to speak in early morning on 'inequality of economic opportunity'. I don't expect that to be of any real importance.

Tomorrow is opex, so expect some extra chop, especially in the late afternoon!

*next QE is Monday.
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Goodnight from London