Friday, 17 October 2014

A huge week for the VIX

With equities sliding to sp'1820 (a level unthinkable just four weeks ago), the VIX exploded this week to a peak of 31.06. Volatility is back, and despite slipping to a Friday low of 20.23, and settling -12.7% @ 21.99, the VIX has confirmed a broader trend change in equities.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

So, the week concluded strongly in favour of the equity bulls, as reflected in a VIX that has been whacked lower from the 31s to 21s across just 3 trading days.

Despite the VIX pull back though, last weeks close above the weekly 200MA was decisive, and with the new highs this week, traders should remain focused on the bigger picture, which has now shifted in favour of much lower equity levels.

It would seem that VIX 40s are due in the next multi-week down cycle, which would likely begin somewhere in the sp'1920/50 zone in November.

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more later... on the indexes