Tuesday, 7 October 2014

3pm update - bears building momentum

US equities break new lows, with a likely daily close in the 1942/38 zone.. along with VIX 17s. Despite the trend... on any fair outlook, bears have no more than the remainder of this week to whack the market to the 1910/00 zone.. before renewed upside.


Dow, daily


... I had asked at the start of the day for Dow -200pts to lessen my headache. Well, we're almost there, but my head still feels hazy.... I really should be elsewhere.

*there was another aspect of support I forgot to mention earlier.. and that is the monthly 10MA. currently around sp'1913. A brief dip to 1910/00 seems viable.. before this madness whipsaws back upward.

As I will continue to note... what is critical, is whether the next up wave gets stuck 1970/90... or just keeps on pushing higher in Christmas.

...considering the EU indexes.... I'm still inclined to much lower levels before year end.

3.11pm.. sp'1943... VIX 17s.... imminent.

It sure looks like we're going to get that mini washout to 1910/00.. with VIX 19/21 zone after all... and in terms of time frame... it MUST be this week.

3.18pm... VIX 17s,,, with sp'1941.....not far to go now.. could all be wrapped up tomorrow... not least with a case of 'Lunar eclipse madness'. ;)

3.24pm.. R2K back under 1080.... looks headed for the low 900s...before QE4... Yeah...another QE. What else would the Fed do?

3.35pm.. at the start of the day, I had noted bears needed to take out the Friday low of 1948.. and we've bested that by 10pts.

A day for the bears.... more looks likely.. at least to 1915/10... whether the Aug' low of 1904 gets tested in normal trading hours....difficult to say.

Notable weakness: miners, GDX -3.0%.... close to taking out the 2013 low.

3.46pm.. Bull maniacs are clearly getting rattled after yesterdays FAIL to break/hold above the down trend.

Primary target... sp'1915/10
Secondary 1905/00.

..and then a bounce... at least to 1970/90...

back at the close.