Friday, 15 August 2014

1pm update - opex chop

US indexes remain weak, but considering the 'spooky' news from the Ukraine, the market is holding together relatively well. VIX is battling to break into the 15s. Metals remain weak, but well above the earlier lows, Gold -$8.



*fib retrace from 1964/ far holding around the 61% level... 1941.

Hourly chart is now a bit of a mess.

We have a break of channel..and we've broken below the high of what some might call a sub'2 at 1944.

For me, the first sign of 'real trouble' would be sp <1925...along with VIX 16/17s.

The big picture outlook would change if sp <1904.. and VIX 18s. If that occurs, then 1991 would likely not be surpassed for remainder of the year.

Keep in mind, the giant monthly cycles on both US and most world indexes are rolling over.

intraday update from Riley


stay tuned!