Thursday, 17 July 2014

VIX explodes.. to the mid teens

The VIX was fractionally lower in the early morning @ 10.85... but with news of the downed Malaysian jet.. the VIX surged, and built gains into the late afternoon (intra high 15.38), settling +32% @ 14.54. Weekly cycles are offering the 17/18s in the immediate term.





Perhaps even more interesting than the daily net gain, is the trend on the weekly VIX chart. As I noted a few weeks ago, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is suggestive of some upside. There is currently viable upside to the 17/18s in the immediate term.

It is notable that even though the VIX saw a net daily gain of a VERY significant 32%.. we're still only looking at VIX 14s.. which is historically a very low VIX.

Special note...

Equity bears should be especially mindful of a very possible black-fail candle at the Friday open - much like last Thursday.

I do not see the VIX holding the upper teens in the near term for more than a few hours. On any basis... equity bears are getting the opportunity to exit after a relatively sharp upside spike.

more later.. on the indexes