Thursday, 17 July 2014

Go stare at this for an hour.. or more

All US equity indexes continue their broad upward trend. Even the weaker R2K remains a very significant 6% above the mid May low. What remains bizarre is how many are still getting wrapped up in the minor down waves... and completely missing the bigger picture.



*the above chart highlights a key Fibonacci upside target, in the sp'2130s. I realise that to some it might seem a bold target, but really, we're only talking about another 7% or so higher.

Since waving the white flag last summer in the sp' almost 25% lower, what has never failed to bemuse me is seeing the continued (and overly confident) bearish chatter across the many blogs, and even some of the bigger finance sites.

Naturally, many of the doomers have used Geo-political issues such as Syria, Ukraine, Iraq (almost any country will do) as reason that a big collapse wave is coming.

Even I've posted future scenarios offering a grander retrace to the 1625/1575 zone, but I sure haven't traded it... not whilst the current price action remains unchanged.

Dow in the 17100s, headed for the 18000s

If you're on board with the sp'2100s outlook, then you have to also be looking for the Dow to keep on pushing into the 18000s.

Dow, monthly'2, rainbow

We have the first green candle on the monthly chart since last December, as price momentum swings a little more in favour of the bulls. Whether the Dow can manage 18k this year..or not until early 2015.. really should make no difference to those on the long side.

Looking ahead

One upside to Thursday..there is no Yellen. Instead, the market can focus on a few pieces of econ data - jobless claims, housing starts, and phil' fed.

Fed official Bullard is speaking in the early afternoon, and I'd expect some of his comments to get the markets attention.

*there is sig' QE of around $2bn, ...bears beware!

Did you stare?

So... yours truly is still touting much higher levels, and in many ways, there is little more to say. I certainly won't be trading any short side positions any time soon, and instead, will merely look to pick up an index long.. or individual stock.. when the mood takes me.

I'm aware of some taking short positions across the past few days. To me, it makes zero sense, and I can only suggest... (as politely as I can)... go stare at the monthly charts for an hour.

If you're still not convinced.. go stare for another hour. Repeat as necessary.. until mindset changed.

Goodnight from London