Friday, 18 July 2014

Friday black candle watch

US equities saw some significant declines, along with a VIX that exploded +41% to the 15.30s, yet was this merely another minor washout, before the next equity up wave? The broader upward trends for most indexes remain intact.



So..lets start with the sp'500 weekly chart... and despite the sig' Thursday declines, we still don't have a red candle. Indeed, the weekly 10MA - currently 1942 is first key support.

Now.. the weakest index...

R2K, weekly

We have two consecutive significant weekly declines, and the R2K has retraced over half of the gains from the powerful ramp of the 1080s to 1213. As many recognise, 1080 is the last sand line. Personally, I think 1130/20s will be a key floor before renewed upside.

Looking ahead

Friday is opex.. so expect some chop. We have 2 pieces of econ data in the morning, consumer sentiment and leading indicators.

*next sig' QE is next Wednesday.

Seeking to go long

I have eyes to pick up a long-index block tomorrow morning...probably the R2K, via IWM option calls.

R2K, 60min

Best guess for Friday? I will be on the look out for a black-fail candle on the VIX hourly/daily cycle by 10am.- along with corresponding reversal candles in the main indexes. Perhaps we'll open in the sp'1950/45 zone, with VIX 15/17s, and then a sharp turn begins.

No doubt though, the Malaysian jet story will rumble on for some days, but its not like we've not been in this market situation a hundred times before.

Goodnight from London