Friday, 18 July 2014

11am update - battling to hold moderate gains

US indexes are battling to hold moderate gains, with the sp +9pts @ 1967. Considering the recent weakness though, there remains very significant likelihood of a further down wave.. if only to test the Thursday low.


sp'60min


VIX'15min


Summary

*I remain on the sidelines, and I ain't chasing on the long side from these levels.
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VIX price structure is a pretty clear bear flag, but the MACD cycle is already pretty low.

Right now...

can't go long...
..and most certainly.. ZERO inclination to short whilst the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are outright bullish.
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Notable strength: Airlines, DAL +2.5%, UAL +2.0%

Yours....trying to be patient.
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11.01am. Market at first resistance, hourly 10MA.. .sp'1970.

11.06am.. typical turn time ..11am....equity bulls getting a valid chance to exit/tighten stops...

high chance of a reversal here....

Eyes on the VIX !


11.40am.. Equity bears fail to show up...

Indexes breaking up and out of the down trend....