sp'monthly
R2K, monthly
Summary
*as for today, there really isn't much to add from earlier posts. There is viable downside to the low sp'1940s... but it is a holiday week, and with low trading vol', the market is more likely to melt upward... than down.
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Unquestionably, it was another month for the equity bull maniacs, the fifth consecutive net monthly gain for most indexes.
The two issues for July appear to be..
1. Will we see sp'2000 along with VIX 9s
2. If Q2 GDP comes in weak (due July'30th.. which happens to be when the FOMC are due to announce QE-taper'6), how will the market cope, and would the FOMC halt the QE taper?
Today's Chicago PMI number of 62 certainly isn't suggestive of recessionary forces. Of course, the QE fuel continues to be reduced ($35bn from July 1'st), and that is no doubt having some degree of 'cool down' - at least for the financial sector of the economy.
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A few bits and pieces to round up the month...
Since it is the end of the month, I wanted to highlight a few things, other than the indexes..
WTIC Oil, monthly'2, rainbow
A monthly gain of 2.4%, with Oil in the $105s. As has been the case since early 2011, Oil struggles in the 100/110 zone, and until we see a monthly close >110, I'd still be somewhat sceptical that the 2008 high of $147 can be challenged. No doubt, if social unrest.. and war consumes more of the middle east, then we might finally see a monthly close in the 110/120s.
Copper, monthly
A net monthly gain of 1.6% @ $3.19. The second consecutive monthly gain, and I have to wonder, are we in with a chance of testing $4 later this year? If Copper is in the upper 3s...or even the low 4s, that bodes for much higher equities.
USD, monthly'2
The world's reserve currency slipped a moderate 0.8% in June. The closing red candle is somewhat bearish for July. If we see the 78s, it'd offer the low 70s.. which would really cause havoc for US asset prices - in terms of 'HUGE' upside potential.
Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle does look somewhat floored though. Dollar bulls need to target the 82s, which would signal a major trend change.
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Closing update from Riley
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see the PMI and ISM manufacturing data, along with construction orders. That should be enough to move the market... at least a little.
Overall though, trading vol' won't likely be any higher than Monday, and things will surely get quieter still on Wed. Thursday will see the monthly jobs data, and we might see a brief hour or two of sig' vol' before the early close of 1pm.
*there is sig' QE-pomo tomorrow, $3bn... bears..beware!
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Another month for the bears to forget
I'm kinda tired, and this post is already overly long. Suffice to conclude, June was merely another month for the equity bears to forget. Not only did we see new historic highs in a number of indexes, but even the battered R2K and Nasdaq saw strong recovery rallies.
I remain resigned to further upside, and until we see the sp' back under 1900, along with VIX 22s (which especially looks difficult), I can't get particularly hopeful.
Ohh, and yeah, I'm still in the trenches... WFM is proving to be my most annoying.. and stupid trade of the year so far. Hell, I only need $41/42 to recover at least something, but even that looks difficult by July opex.
Goodnight from London