Tuesday 8 July 2014

11am update - gap fill at 1962

US indexes remain moderately weak, with the sp' having a high potential of having completed a gap fill at sp'1962. Equity bears will find it very difficult to push much lower today. VIX has probably maxed out at 12.45.


sp'60min


Summary

...and I'm back from the shops...  bullish retail, I guess you could say.
--

We don't have a clear turn yet.. but considering the past few weeks.. and months of price action, we probably have a floor in for today.

For those who think the sp'2000s are due... now would be prime buying time.
-

Notable weakness: TWTR, -7%


Unless you think sp is going <1900, the momo stocks - inc' Twitter, will no doubt recover.
-

11.20am... market battling to hold the earlier low of 1962.

Short term momentum remains with the bears..but its going to be damn hard to break into the 1950s today.  VIX looks similarly maxed out on the hourly....

but no confirmed turn yet.
-
FOMC minutes are tomorrow, that'd make for a valid excuse to begin a new up wave.


11.30am.. Mr Market just gently washing away the weak bull hands... 1961/60.

R2K -1.7%.... that makes for around -3.5% across 9 trading hours. Pretty strong retrace.


11.33am.. provisional sign of a turn at sp'1960... bears...beware!

11.37am... increasing probability with each minute that 1960 was the floor of what was a rather swift 2 day decline, roughly -1.2% for the headline indexes.

..time for a somewhat early lunch, back at 12pm