sp'weekly8b
Summary
The weekly 'rainbow' chart looks really strong with the sp' back in the 1950s. Equity bulls should be content with any weekly close above 1945, which will keep the current candle...green :)
As for the wave count, I'd still guess we're in blue'3.... and have a fair chance of a down wave from 1960/70...to maybe 1920/00. As things are, I'd be very reluctant to attempt to play such a wave... overly risky, whilst the broader trend remains so strong. Instead, I'd merely look to go long for a final wave higher into July.
R2K, daily
With the daily close in the 1180s, the old H/S scenario is dropped. I'm resigned to not only the 1200s..but new highs... with an upside target zone of 1225/50 by mid July.
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VIX, monthly
The VIX is at levels not seen since Feb' 2007..and on any basis, this is a market that is utterly fearless. Even the mid teens look out of range in the near term, and I no longer expect the VIX 20 threshold to be tested until late July at the earliest.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual jobs data, phil' fed, and leading indicators. That will be plenty enough to give the market a nudge in the morning.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn... bears...beware.
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Closing update from Riley
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The bear flag failed
So...all that talk of 'ohh, its a bear flag..don't you see it?'...amounted to nothing..and indeed, we even saw new historic highs today. I almost wish I was wrong, but hell, the price action since early last week did not have ANY sig' downside power to it.
Until the bears can show some real power - which would be reflected in a VIX in the upper teens (if not the 20s), I can't take ANY downside seriously.
My broader outlook remains offering a sig' multi-month down wave beginning later this summer, but as ever...until I see some downside power... I will be very cautious about shorting the market.
*having exited my index-long block, I'm now merely seeking to drop CHK and WFM into the Friday close... if prices are 'reasonable'.
Goodnight from London