Thursday 22 May 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes all closed with somewhat significant gains, sp +15pts @ 1888. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is moderately bullish, with 'best bull case' being sp'1920/50 zone by mid June.


sp'daily5


R2K



Trans



Summary

*I bailed on R2K index longs this morning, around the 1100 level. Recent price action has been particularly weak, and there remains a real risk of a break <1080 in the near term.
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So...we still have a split between the Dow/Trans/SP, and the R2K/Nasdaq, but even the tech' was breaking higher today..outside of the descending trend. The R2K still looks a weak mess, and it'd not surprise me if it just sporadically broke <1080..setting off all sorts of trouble for the broader market.

As it is, the broader market is indeed still very close to historic highs, and there is a viable 3-4 weeks of moderate upside into the next FOMC of June'18.

The equity bears might have to be patient for another month.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...