sp'weekly9 - the next fib retrace
Dow, monthly
Summary
*I will adjust the fib' chart as necessary, if we have one further wave higher into the next FOMC of June'18. Certainly, even if we rally to 1920..or a little higher, it will make little difference to the primary downside target.
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The Dow monthly chart should really concern the equity bulls. Yes, the trend is STILL to the upside, but we have the fifth consecutive blue candle, and a red candle looks due in either June..or July. Equity bears will merely need to break <16000 in June to break the primary rising trend.
Best case downside for the bears this summer is 14000/13500, which is a long way down indeed. I do not see the 12000s as viable at all this year..under almost any scenario.
Looking ahead
There is an array of econ-data tomorrow, jobless claims, PMI manu', home sales, and leading indicators.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Tuesday.
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Back on the sidelines
I have valiantly tried to play the long side..and it did not work out this time. Frankly, I would be more than content to sit this out until early/mid June..and just wait for the next decent bearish setup. Whether the market has already peaked at 1902..or yet to claw to 1920..30..or even the 40/60 zone, I don't much mind.
I will be ready when this nonsense breaks lower..and break lower it surely will.
Goodnight from a...resolutely bearish London