Volatility lower for a second day

With the US indexes climbing into the afternoon, the VIX was in melt mode, hitting an intraday low of 13.70, but settling -7.2% @ 13.82. If the main market rolls over again - taking out the Tuesday low of sp'1837, then VIX should spike into the high teens.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, a second day lower for the VIX, and for many equity bears out there, it seems to be a case of 'oh noes..new index highs imminent'.

Yet..a bounce from the sp'1837 low was expected. My target was 1865/75..which was hit today. I would only get concerned on a daily closing in the 1880s, which frankly..looks..difficult.

For me, the issue is not whether the VIX will spike..of course it will, but whether it can break the big 20 threshold. Considering it has already done that this year - in the late Jan' down wave, I see absolutely no reason why we won't see VIX 20s this spring. Whether that is within the next 2-7 trading days..that is hard to say.

On any basis though, the VIX is currently very low, and there is certainly more threat of upside..than downside.

I am short the market from sp'1866, and VIX 13.90s...would seek a provisional VIX exit in the 15s..if that is achieved before the Friday close.
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more later...on the indexes