Thursday 10 April 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed significantly higher, sp +20pts @ 1872. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is very bearish if the market can take out the recent low of sp'1837, with a multi-week downside target of the 1780/60 zone.


sp'daily5


Summary

So, the market rallied for a second day, but really, this was expected, with the market having seen a 60pt fall from 1897 to the Tuesday morning low of 1837. Typically, it is often the case of 2 steps forward and 1 step back (whichever way the primary trend happens to be).

Barring a break into the 1880s, this is surely just a bounce, although an especially annoying one for those who have been holding short since early Tuesday.

Despite today's second day of gains, the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains negative, with a more intense downside wave viable within 2-3 trading days.
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Closing update from Riley



I certainly agree with just about everything he says, not least in terms of price action. Although I would argue we have seen some aspects that we didn't see in 2013. 
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a little more later...