Thursday, 24 April 2014

The next big retrace

The weekly index charts continue to suggest at least a few more weeks of upside - since the recent low of sp'1814. A move into the 1925/50 zone is the target for late May/early June. From there, the equity bears will have yet another opportunity to attempt to put in a key inter'3 top.

sp'weekly9 - fib levels


The above chart is something I've posted a fair few times in the past few months. Yes, I've certainly adjusted the starting point, and right now, I'm assuming we will reach into the 1925/50 zone.

I'd be surprised if the market can break >sp'1950/2000 this side of the summer.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data, along with Durable Goods Orders. If either/both of those come in at least 'reasonable', the equity bulls should be able to push into the 1885/95 zone, bringing within reach, a weekly close in the 1890s - setting up the low 1900s for next week.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.

Permabear...picking up positions

I regularly chart/follow a good 75/100 companies each day (never mind the ETFs, commodities), and a few caught my eye last night. Notably, FCX and RIG. Both of the weekly charts look bullish in the near term, so I picked up a small position in both this morning.

FCX actually has earnings early tomorrow, so I'm expecting a sig' way or the other.

Further, the broader down trend continues in the metals, and I also picked up a small short position in SLV. Gold and Silver still look set to break the 2013 lows, and I'm guessing we will eventually see a multi-year floor in Gold, somewhere in the 1050/950 zone.

Goodnight from London