Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower - ahead of key econ-data, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1877. Metals are weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -1.1%. Equity bulls just need to clear >1884, whilst bears should be at the prayer stage by now. April is set to close with minor net monthly equity gains.



The levels are pretty clear.

Bulls just need a minor kick upward this morning to take out the recent 1884 high, which will open up 1895/1905 as early as today.


ADP jobs
Chicago PMI
..and the FOMC QE taper'4 announcement

Bizarrely, Mr Permabull is actually bearish...

Oscar didn't say it in words, but it looks like he is seeking the recent low of sp'1814 to be taken out in a down wave starting this afternoon. Although he did note, if we instead break higher, they will be major buyers from Thursday onward.

Notable early mover: TWTR, -13.6% in the $36s. Next stop would appear to be the IPO issue price of $26.00.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading!

8.15am.. ADP jobs, 220k private sector net gains for April... a very reasonable number, but as ever, the more important one will be the BLS monthly on Friday.

8.31am.. GDP for Q1... 0.1% growth...borderline recession....that is real ugly.

Indexes are not snapping particularly lower though.  sp far.

8.36am. So..lets get this clear...GDP is effectively zero for Q1, and the Dow is -20pts.

9.25am..  Considering the GDP data, equity bulls should be relieved we aren't opening -150/200pts on the Dow, but hey..its the 'new era' of the market, right?

A long day ahead....

Notable weakness, TWTR, -12% in the $37s, with empty air down to $26

9.37am  I see a market where a fair few things are already starting to turn green.

Right now, I just don't see any downside power.

Chicago PMI coming 9.45am

VIX battling to hold minor gains of just 2%, which should be a concern for the equity bears. 

9.45am.. PMI    63.... vs 56.9 exp... MUCH better than expected, and that will help to placate the market.