sp'weekly8b
Summary
So, today was more of a bullish day, price action showed no sign of the equity bears. If Mr Market can cope with the next QE taper, and a few pieces of econ-data, we look set to begin May very close to the next psy' level of sp'1900.
Best guess is that we do battle higher into the 1925/50 zone this May, and then get stuck - although we might see a fair few weeks of chop into early June, before the next multi-week down cycle.
To be clear, I am STILL seeking a very significant multi-month down wave this year, with a primary target zone of sp'1625/1575.
Looking ahead
Wednesday is arguably the most important day of this week, there is a lot for the market to digest.
First, we have the ADP jobs, but far more important...
Q1 GDP, market consensus is only seeking 1.1% growth, which frankly I expect to be comfortably met. Indeed, if we see >1.5%, I'd expect the market to be particularly pleased, and use it as an excuse to break back into the 1890s - ahead of the FOMC announcement.
There is also the Chicago PMI at 9.45am.
Indeed, the FOMC are set to announce QE-taper'4 at 2pm. There will not be a post Yellen press conf', which the bulls should be somewhat relieved about.
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Permabear still.. heavy long
Yours truly is holding five positions, all on the long side. As ever, I will seek to drop them all by the Friday close, not least since I prefer to have no positions across the weekend.
Regardless of how tomorrow goes, there is still the big monthly jobs data on Friday. That will be another possible excuse for the market to break into new historic territory - to be lead by the Dow/SP.
For those on the short side, especially those holding from over two weeks ago, this is indeed a difficult time. A break <1840 (weekly support) looks very unlikely, never mind the key low of 1814.
Goodnight from London