Wednesday 2 April 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 1886. Precious metals are higher, Gold +$11, with Silver +1.1%. Oil remains weak, -0.2%. With two new index highs (sp', Trans), equity bulls look set for much higher levels across April.


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Summary

*awaiting the ADP jobs report (8.15am), and Factory orders (10am).

With some minor QE this morning, so long as the data comes in at least 'reasonable', equity bulls have just about everything in their favour.
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Fibonacci extrapolation upwards?

As I noted in last nights closing post, the monthly charts are already offering the 1960/70s. If you do a simple 1.6x extrap' of the wave from 1737/1883...that gives the 1970s.

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In the scheme of things, a move to the 1970s isn't that much, we're only talking about 80pts or so, which is not even 5%. So...right now, the 1970s would be my upside target, and that seems viable in May.
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*I am on the sidelines, but will be looking to go long something in the next few days. With new index highs, I have ZERO interest in being short the indexes in the near term.

If I do go long, a fair long-stop would be the recent weekly close of sp'1857, or the rising weekly 10MA of 1844.
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Good wishes for Wednesday trading.
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8.16am.. ADP jobs: 191k, a touch under the market consensus, but really, its an 'okay' number. 

9.37am.. I'm looking for a possible retrace here,  from the 1842/86 wave, as a long entry..but not today...