Wednesday 2 April 2014

3pm update - weakness into the close

New historic highs for a number of equity indexes, but US markets are set to close on a moderately weak note - not that it negates the importance of the new highs. A retrace to the sp'1875/65 zone looks viable tomorrow/early Friday, which would likely equate to VIX 14s.


sp'60min


Summary

Even if all indexes close moderately red today, in no way can the bears start getting remotely excited.

The bears FAILED last week to break <1840/30, and indeed, we have broken new historic highs.

For me, the only issue is whether the market can retrace lower enough to entice me aboard the bull train. A disturbing thought...to be sure.
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updates into the close..although I'm not expecting any dramatic downside, at best..perhaps 1880.


3.07pm.. momo stocks are weak, esp' TWTR.  The notable exception is TSLA, +4%, Transports are leading today.


3.28pm.. Well, sp'1890...and the weakness..., it sure ain't there.

..and that is the problem the bears face. The breakout to new highs...could just keep going..and going.
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I guess you could say...'won't short, might go long, but only if minor retrace'.

At least I'm not losing money today...


Notable strength: GDX +3.1%...traders are chasing the mining stocks, but the broader trend remains weak.


3.37pm...and new index highs..as the bears who were shorting earlier get kicked out.


3.43pm.. getting ugly for those in bear land.. sp'1892...and the 1900s are fast approaching.

VIX turns red..back in the 12s

3.50pm.. Dow on the edge of breaking a new high...16588.25  (from Dec'31 2013)

3.56pm.. A day for the bulls...and most certainly..that was NOT a weak close!