sp'monthly
R2K, monthly
Summary
So, we now have one quarter of 2014 complete. More notable than anything, equity bulls can now count 30 full months of upside since the giant wave began in Oct'2011, when the sp' was a mere 1074 - around 800pts lower.
Equity bears are still fighting for a turn month, never mind an actual 'significant' monthly decline. A monthly close below the rising 10MA (currently 1753, and likely the 1770s across April), should remain the first objective for those seeking a multi-month down wave.
Right now, an April close <1770 looks exceedingly difficult, even with reduced QE.
A few other notable aspects for March...
Copper, monthly
The break below the big $3 threshold was very important, and even though we closed March in the $3s, some serious technical damage has been done.
WTIC Oil, monthly'2
Oil prices remain stuck in an increasingly tight 110/90 range. Until we break out of that, the price action is arguably all minor noise.
Finally, a look at the USD, which managed a minor, but important monthly gain of just over 0.5%.
USD, monthly'2
Importantly, the USD held a monthly close above the key 80 threshold. Note the monthly bollinger bands, they are super tight, which bodes for a big move sometime this year, and I'm guessing it will be to the upside. That will put significant downside pressure on equities, but especially on commodities, not least the precious metals.
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Looking ahead
We have a little array of econ-data tomorrow, PMI manu', ISM manu', and construction.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Wednesday, and even then, it will only be $2.5bn or so.
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Equity bulls can't get confident.. quite yet
Despite today's gains, the market remains stuck within a very tight range of 1834/1883. Until we break above..or below this range..neither bulls..nor bears have anything much to get excited about.
Yours truly remains short, with a 'sand line' of 1884/85 or so. If I get the short-stop boot tomorrow, I can live with that, but hey..maybe I won't get the boot.
Goodnight from London