sp'weekly8
Summary
The above chart is a very disappointing one. I did indeed have reasonable hope we're break the 1800 threshold, with a brief drop to the 1770/60 zone, before the next bounce. Yet..1814 is all the bears got, and after some chop across Mon-Tue, Wednesday was a very decisive close
The underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is now ticking higher, and we closed the week with a very bullish green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart. It is actually pretty unusual to see a green candle immediately after a red candle, but then, we did swing 49pts from the low.
I'm now resigned to at least 2-3 further upward weeks, perhaps 5, and that will get us to the end of May/early June. I do still have hopes of a multi-month decline this year, but clearly, the immediate trend is back to the upside.
Walker inspired R2K doom
I do keep an eye on what Ron Walker - see Chartpatterntrader , is saying, not least in the videos he posts. Something he mentioned the other day did catch my attention.
It was the notion that the R2K - and probably the Nasdaq, might put in a H/S formation, whilst the sp/dow, break new highs.
R2K, weekly'2 - H/S
It is an interesting scenario, but one that would obviously get dropped on any move much above 1200. As I often note, the R2K is the second leading market index (Trans, remains the first in my view), and it was notable that the R2K not only hit the 200 day MA, but also hit the lower weekly bollinger - a target I often drone on about.
So, I will keep the above scenario in mind for May/early June. Perhaps R2K 1180/1200 would equate to sp'1925/50 or so, within the next 3-5 weeks.
As ever, an open mind on all of this..is always a good idea.
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Communism is alive and well
I have certainly been on Schiff's case in recent months - not least for his incessant 'dollar doom' mantra, but the following is one interview where I am waving the flag for him.
As ever, the problem with communism is that it is never satisfied with a certain level of control. Hartman sure doesn't know his history, or he'd sure as hell not talk like that. In the grander outlook, I just have to wonder whether the USA doesn't indeed have to become the USSA, before the next grand cycle can begin.
Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes