Trans, monthly
The recent equity weakness is hardly noticeable on the Tranny. Even though the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower for the fourth consecutive month, prices are still rising. The rising 10MA, in the low 7000s is key support. Until the bears can get a monthly closing under 7K, there is little reason to get overly excited.
VIX, monthly
What has probably bemused many of the permabears across the last two years is the low VIX. 2012 saw a high of 27, whilst the 2013 high was a mere 21. The bears can at least tout that we have already seen 21s this past January, so there is a hope that we'll at least break into the upper 20s at some point this year.
Perhaps most notable, are the super tight bollinger bands on the monthly VIX chart. It is very much the price action seen from 2004 to 2007. My concern is that we will see another year of this low VIX before the next economic cycle concludes.
USD, monthly'2
King dollar remains.. King, despite what some of the doomers might wish to believe. Yes, we're stuck in a very tight trading range, and if we go much below 79.00, then the door is open all the way to the 70.00s - the ultimate support line.
As it is, the underlying MACD (green bar histogram) looks prone to a big move to the upside. The cycle looks pretty floored to me. If there was a turn, it'd likely take 2-3 months to become clear.
Without question, I am bullish USD. I just can't take other currencies like the Euro..or worse..the Japanese Yen seriously. Both of those look set to implode - or at least devalued via printing, before the USD.
All those equity doomers seeking sp'1500..or lower, are going to need USD >85.
CRB vs sp'500, weekly
The gap between the CRB and SP'500 is finally closing. I suppose its possible - at least for those who are suggesting equities are near a multi-year top, that the current commodity rise is similar to that seen in mid'2007. Using that analogy, equities max out in 3-6 months, and commodities reach a peak in mid 2015. I could certainly be open to that scenario.
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Video updates
First, from Mr Walker, what is surely the weekend update...
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A little chatter from Mr Hunter
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more later (probably)..in the evening