Tuesday, 29 April 2014

Equity bears teased again

It was an interesting day to start the week, with the market swinging from opening gains - sp'1877, down to 1850, but then a rather typical latter day recovery. Equity bears have probably seen the low of the week, and the bull maniacs should now charge for 1880/90s by late Wednesday (Fed day).



It is notable that we now have the third consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' charts - although it did flip briefly blue with the sp'1850s today. The broader upward trend remains intact. I could only consider the bears to have any hope, on a weekly close <1840, and that does seem unlikely.

Regardless of whether the micro count is even remotely correct, right now, the trend is still broadly UP!

Looking ahead

We have case shiller HPI and consumer confidence. If those come in at least reasonable, the market should be fine to rally - and unlike today...hold the gains.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2bn.

Permabear covered in too much Oil ?

I hold heavy long overnight, via CHK, DO, RIG, SDRL, and STX. I dropped an annoying Silver short early in the day, although I might pick that back up Wednesday at the next hourly cycle peak.

Considering the hourly and weekly index cycles, I remain highly dubious that the equity bears can break below sp'1840 this week. Indeed, I'd not be surprised if we put in a weekly close somewhere in the 1880/1900 zone.

If the market can cope with QE-taper'4, and at least 'reasonable' GDP/monthly jobs data, then there is little reason why we won't really into May.

Goodnight from London