Monday 7 April 2014

3pm update - a test of the 50 day MA

Equities remain weak, in one of the most consistent down trends we've seen since at least late January. VIX is +10% in the 15.30s - having briefly broken the 16 threshold. Metals are starting another week...weak...Gold -$6. Oil is similarly on the slide, -0.7%


sp'daily5


vix'daily3


Summary

The bigger daily charts tell the story. A failure on 'jobs Friday'..and we just keep on falling.

Once the 50 day MA is broken - as I'm guessing it will...then the door is wide open to the sp'1770s....which seem viable 'within days'.

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With the break of the weekly 10MA... I'm looking to launch an index short..on the next bounce. Right now, 1855/60 looks to be the best the bulls could hope for.


3.11pm.. we have a BREAK of down trend...bounce appears underway..will likely last into early tomorrow.

sp'15min


So..I'll be on standby to launch an index short early tomorrow. Hell, I might even pick up a VIX call block.


3.15pm.. ohh lookie..we're 'off the lows of the day'.

Bounce target 1860/65...early tomorrow.


3.30pm.. bounce..most certainly...bears on the run !   VIX about to lose the 15s.

3.46pm.. some minor weak chop, but the down trend from Friday has concluded..for a minor bounce.

Target remains the 1860s..before next down wave. VIX holding gains of around 9%, which is twice the Friday gain.

VIX did make some progress today.


3.51pm.. chop chop... a second good day for the bears...now its a case of whether the rebound can be contained.

back at the close.