Monday 7 April 2014

2pm update - at least I'm not long

It seems like forever since we've seen this kinda of relentless fall. So far...sp -53pts, across 11 trading hours, which is pretty impressive. With the weekly 10MA decisively busted, the only thing left is the 50 dma of sp'1839. If that fails, another 40/50pts..fast.


sp'15min


Summary

Naturally, I'm on the sidelines. I suppose it could be worse...I could have been going long last Friday in the 1890s.
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I remain awaiting a bounce...but then, I said that a few hours ago in the sp'1850s.
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Regardless, price action favours the bears..and there is now moderately opportunity for a decline to the sp'1770s within the very near term...as in 'this week'.


VIX....trying to break the FOMC high of 15.95..when sp' hit a brief low of 1850.


A daily close in the 16s sure would be a victory for the bears.


2.18pm.. VIX 15.93... almost there...and will likely trigger some more late day VIX call buy orders.

How are those bulls feeling who bought the 'good jobs news' Friday morning?


2.24pm..Well, here come a test of the 50 day MA.. at 1839.

Considering the micro cycles..a bounce still seems...likely..but bounce upside seems limited to the 1855/60 zone.

Momo stocks all on the slide, notable weakness: TSLA, -3.9%
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2.34pm... very obvious VIX resistance at 16, with sp' in the low 1840s.

Bears will 'fly' once those two thresholds are broken..whether today, tomorrow, or later in the week.

Price action remains strongly bearish.