sp'weekly7b
Summary
Barring a break >1875 (or at least >1883), I'll keep on posting the above scenario, which remains my 'best bearish scenario' for this year.
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Threshold for green/blue candle is sp'1858, and that is partly why I am focusing on that number. After today's frustrating price action, I think most bears would gladly settle for a Friday close in the mid/low 1860s.
Japan sure looks bearish
The monthly chart of the Nikkei sure looks damn ugly, and we have the MACD (green bar histogram) warning of major trouble in April..and probably the summer.
First downside target remains 12k, with a secondary of 10k. Any monthly closes under 12k, and that would be a real problem. I realise some would argue 'Ohh, Asian or even the EU indexes are not important', but hey, if the Nikkei is at 12k in April/May, the Dow will at least be in the low 15000s.
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Looking ahead
Friday is quad-opex, so expect some serious price chop, especially in late afternoon.
Fed official Bullard is speaking in the late morning, and as ever, the market might use any statement/comments as an excuse to move.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Wednesday, so equity bears have a clear 3 day window to knock this market lower, at least to test the H/S neckline in the low sp'1840s.
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Borderline
Without question, the daily close of sp'1872 is way too close for comfort for those holding overnight on the short side. Any move >1875 will trigger a lot of short-stops, and then the mainstream talk would flip to 'when are the 1900s coming?'
sp'60min1c
The above H/S scenario is right on the edge, and frankly, if we don't at least close lower by 5-10pts tomorrow, It'll likely turn out to be a bust. As ever...one day at a time.
Goodnight from London