Friday 21 March 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts @ 1872. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for some 'selling into the weekend', which might equate to VIX breaking into the 17s.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

Arguably, the most bearish aspect of the day was the 'old leader', Trans, which actually managed a fractionally red close, despite the mild hysteria in the headline indexes.

So..where now? Bulls have been trying for 3 days to break >1875 - which for me is the top end of a possible RS of a H/S formation.

All things considered, so long as we don't gap open >1875 tomorrow, equity bears should have opportunity to push the market lower into the Friday close. After all, who wants to be going long, with continuing geo-political rumblings?

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a little more later...