Tuesday, 18 March 2014

3pm update - a few points of buffer left

Equity bears are on the edge of losing what is a fragile H/S scenario - not least one ahead of the FOMC. Even a brief break above sp'1875 will cause some critical damage, and instead be suggestive of the sp'1900s. VIX remains utterly crushed, -8% in the 14.30s.



The line is pretty clear. I guess a brief point or two higher to 1876/77 is just about acceptable, but this is already on the edge at 1872/73.

Daily index charts are offering new highs on ALL main indexes as early as tomorrow.

Again though, I'd dare highlight that last weeks close was a provisional warning of trouble.

So..place ya bets...

...new highs..or a break <1834...to at least 1800/1790.

I remain content to watch..and will assess tomorrow afternoon. Of course, ANY new highs in ANY of the indexes will arguably void any remaining  hopes of downside.

3.04pm.. Kinda interesting how we are stuck at the top of the target box though?

Arguably.. best scenario for the bears... open -5/10pts..rally back to the low 1870s on the FOMC announcement..and then roll over.

As ever..price action is EVERYTHING..and right now..its looking............. tired.

3.13pm... Who wants to buy >1875 ?     I don't see anyone yet..at least not ahead of the FOMC.

Hourly MACD cycle is high..and suggestive of a bearish cross in about 4-6 trading hours.

Notable strength: DRYs +4.4%, but still 10% below the levels of a week or two ago.

3.26pm.. micro 5/15min cycles look floored... a close around 1874/75....should keep everyone hanging overnight.

A Wed' gap down of 5/7pts....easily viable to 1865....not that is anything remotely significant!

Oil +1.3%...hmm..

3.35pm...  each hour we remain stuck in the 1865/75 zone..the better. It is a good setup for the bears, not least whilst the VIX has been whacked from 18 to the low 14s in just two days.

For those watching, front month option index puts have lost around 50% of their value since the Friday close. Certainly..a far better entry price than those holding across the weekend.

3.47pm... a few rats are cashing out for the day..and who can blame them..in the 1870s! A mere 0.6% from historic highs.

Bulls can tolerate a Wed open of 1865 or so.

3.51pm.... a daily close in the low 1870s...that will keep the majority guessing..and confused.

Mr Market sure does excel at that.   back at the close!