sp'daily7 - bearish outlook
sp'daily8 - the bullish outlook
Summary
Considering the fact we still have THREE consecutive red candles on the weekly 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) index charts, I'm highly inclined to hold to the original outlook.- of weekly'7.
For those doomer bears seeking much lower levels this spring/summer, they really should be seeking a hit of the lower weekly bollinger, currently 1690 - which will jump to 1700/05 next week.
More than anything, recent price action is nothing like what we saw in 2013. Indeed, the recent two major daily declines of -38 and -40pts on the sp'500, are 'something new'. Since the break of 1815, I have to hold to weekly charts, which remain bearish.
Looking ahead
Market is seeking monthly job gains of around 181k, with a static jobless headline rate of 6.7% Frankly, I find it hard to believe we'll see a gain >100k, but hey, its the BLS data, and that is always tough to 'guess' their calculations.
Besides the monthly jobs data, there is also consumer credit data in the late afternoon.
*there is no sig' QE until next Monday
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Got popcorn?
So...we now await the next big econ data point. Last month saw 74k net job gains, which really surprised many - myself included. If tomorrows number comes in <100k, then surely we'll lose all of today's gains..and keep falling?
The hourly index and VIX cycles are both arguably exhausted, and there is certainly the potential for a major drop tomorrow. Equity bears should be seeking a weekly close <1750, with a VIX of 19.50..or higher.
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Perhaps the following outlines what I believe is viable tomorrow in what remains a twisted and bizarre market...
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Goodnight from London