Friday, 7 February 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher (ahead of the jobs data), sp +4pts, we're set to open around 1777. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$5. Equity bulls need a Friday gain of 10pts to 1783 for a net weekly gain.




Monthly jobs:   113k net gains, 6.6% headline rate.... vs market expectation 181k, 6.7%

Notable early mover: UGAZ -10%, with probably another 10% to fall to come...that'd get Nat' Gas prices back to $4.50, which was my target from two days ago.

Major day ahead, one that will determine at least the next week or two.

Video update from Mr C.

Looks like Oscar is back in full permabull mode. Nice to see him highlight the weekly 200 MA though. As I've noted, equity bears need to see a weekly close >19.50..otherwise...cycle complete.

8.31pm...   113k net gains, 6.6%

Frankly,...weak.. and market has swung to sp -8pts...

Equity bears MUST close <1750 today, to negate the Thursday bounce.

8.33am.. sp-11pts....having swung from +4pts.

Getting kinda interesting, but really, bears need to be extremely cautious today.

8.35am.. well...sp -7pts, least we're not +15/20pts.

'bad news is ...bad news' ?

8.39am.. sp -2pts...urghh....this is not looking consistent for the bears.. market still trying to rally.

8.43am  sp-5pts... its getting a bit wild west out there.

*note the Dec' number was effectively unchanged at econ-bulls have a lot to be concerned about.

8.47am..It only took 17mins for the market to flip back to evens.   This is looking a real mess for equity bears..even though the data was significantly weaker than consensus.

sp +2pts...1775, if we opened now.

8.55am.. sp +8pts, we're set to open at 1881....we're back to the old madness again!

9am.... so..lets get this clear....

Pretty bad econ-number, market swings 15pts lower to -11....30mins later...swings 20pts higher to sp +9pts

Anyone playing indexes in pre-market, has just got whipsawed to hell.

Madnessssss.   We have a CRAZY day ahead

Denniger..see last paragraph, sums it up. Market Ticker 

9.10am... The metals jumped on the bad data, but...Gold is now just +$2. Metals have been trying to break higher for months...still failing, and that sure won't help the mining stocks.

9.20am.. so..we're set to open moderately higher, sp the low 1780s.  

9.36am  Despite the initial drop, it looks to be over for the bears. 1783...and we're now net higher on the week, ending the multi-week down cycle.

VIX almost back in the 15s, having fails to hold above the weekly 200 MA.