sp'weekly4 - broader bullish outlook
sp'daily3b - fib levels
Summary
So..equities closed lower. Equity bulls can claim new highs in the current rally, but then the equity bears can equally tout a rather bearish daily candle - a 'bearish engulfing' one, with a spike top no less!
Overall, the weekly charts are still outright bullish, and so I will hold to the original outlook of a key high around the time of the next FOMC (March'19).
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**Bonus chart
Trans, weekly
In conversation with a poster just earlier, the issue of the transports. Clearly, the 7000 level is key, and if lost, would also be a rather decisive break of the larger up trend. So..bulls have 2% of buffer zone on the Trans, and had better hold that tomorrow.
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Looking ahead
There is a wide array of data tomorrow, jobs, PMI, CPI, Phil' Fed, and leading indicators. There is also the Oil and Nat' gas reports. Certainly, some of that will help to give the market a kick one way or another.
*there is VERY heavy QE, $4-5bn, bears...beware, even if we open somewhat lower!
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The Ukraine and other 'minor issues'.
The live TV coverage in the Ukraine has been rather disturbing to see, but even more so..there is increasing chatter about a summer conflict (however brief) between China and Japan. Of course, such chatter has been ongoing for some considerable time, but this time...it does feel like the rumblings will turn into a major 'conflict' quake.
It has been my assertion for many months that the next major correction (call it a wave 4, D, or whatever), would be a result of geo-political issues, rather than underlying economic problems (not that there aren't a truck load of those). Considering the past few days of trouble in the Ukraine... I hold to that outlook.
As for the near term in market land, it sure will be interesting to see how the market deals with taper'3 at the March'19 FOMC. Again, it remains ironic that the Fed should be afraid to not taper, for fear of looking weak. Oh well, at least the months ahead won't be boring!
Goodnight from London
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update 11pm EST.
Futures are sp -7pts, which would make for an open at 1821 - breaking initial soft support zone 1830/26. Next level would be the 50 day MA @ 1813.
So...Thursday morning..if we are -16pts or more..then bears have a chance to wreak some havoc. As it is, with the QE..and from an hourly MACD cycle that is already low, I still think the setup is lousy from the bearish perspective.