Monday 10 February 2014

2pm update - afternoon index chop

The US indexes continue to churn sideways, whilst the smaller cycles reset themselves after the 60pt ramp from sp'1737. There remains moderate risk of downside to re-test 1775/70, but arguably, higher risk of upside to test and break the 50 day MA, currently @ 1809.


sp'60min


Summary

So....we have the smaller cycles , arguably already having reset at least 45/50% - whilst prices have merely flat lined. This does not bode well for equity bears.

At best, we'll get a brief wave lower to re-test 1775/70..only to then ramp.
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Any break >1800..and a test of the 1770s can likely be dropped.

A broader climb into the next FOMC of March'19 seems probable.


2.20pm.. well, we're a mere 2pts from breaking into the 1800s, and as noted...if we manage that, the chance of a retracement to 1775/70 will look increasingly unlikely.

I see a fair few out there talking about a renewed strong push lower, <1737, but really, that simply doesn't look viable...even with somewhat lower monthly QE-pomo (of which there is nothing significant in the remainder of this week).

TSLA pushing again, +6.3%.  A daily close in the 200s looks very viable...no doubt..a lot of stops will be there!


2.45pm.. market trying to break 1800..but...you can see its getting real stuck.

This is line in the sand for inv H/S idea that some are looking for.

VIX is red, so that is confirming the continuing equity strength.