sp'weekly8
Summary
So..the fourth blue consecutive candle, but in price terms..market is effectively flat. For the equity bears out there, this should be real concerning. Every day of chop is another missed opportunity.
Best guess remains..upside into the 1860/80 zone...then a 3% down wave..which now seems unlikely to start until early February, after the next FOMC.
WTIC Oil..creeping upward
weekly, 3yr
First target is $100/101, and then $105, where we have upper bol' resistance. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to turn positive within the next 1-2 weeks.
Things don't get interesting unless we break the May'2011 high of $114.83. That is certainly a fair way up, and looks unlikely this year. I'd guess there is no real chance of Oil breaking the 2008 high of $147 until late summer 2015 at the very earliest
Looking ahead
There is no data due tomorrow, aside from various corporate earnings.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn.
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The weekend is almost here
Equity bulls should merely seek a weekly close >sp'1815/20. Anything in the 1830/40s is a bonus - considering the recent weakness. Equity bears look weak, and frankly, I just can't see the sp'1700s until the summer, and that still assumes my broader 'intermediate top in the late spring' is correct. There remains the threat..a VERY real one, that we'll just keep going broadly higher - in the style of 2012/13. I sure hope that is not the case.
Goodnight from London