sp'60min
Summary
So...we're set to open a little higher, but really, 5pts is a micro move.
I suppose any minor bounce this morning of 5/10pts could be labelled a micro'4 - in relation to last Fridays rather clear 3' (of whatever degree).
Obviously, bears face risk of a sizable bounce between now and the FOMC announcement this Wednesday (2pm).
All things considered though, any bounce is to be re-shorted, ideally, from the 1810/15 zone.
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One primary scenario
The following is something that a fair few have also noted this past weekend..
sp'daily1b, HS
It'd suggest no lower than 1780/70 this week, and then a bounce, back to the 1810/20s...before eventual downside (mid/late Feb) to 1740/20.
Anyone holding short whilst the market is in the 1780/70s is going to need to be real careful, mindful of a bounce that might be 40/50pts..with a VIX that could slip from 19/20...down to the low teens.
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Video update from Oscar
'Don't fall in love with the downside'. Hmm. Oscar has a point, but as I noted at the weekend, the weekly charts sure don't look good right now. The power, and style in which we closed Friday was very bearish, and bodes for at least 1780 this week.
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Notable early movers: CAT, +6.7%, BTU +2.0%, but the latter really looks ugly on a daily chart.
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Have a good day!
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9.16am.. market sure looks weak in pre-market..with the opening gains of just 2-3pts now.
If Mr Market wants to annoy most...a move to 1780/70..then whipsaw higher across Tue/Wednesday..before renewed weakness Thur/Friday.
Weekly VIX cycle is clear...strong resistance in the 19/20 zone.