Monday 27 January 2014

12pm update - battling it out

Mr Market is fighting hard to find a short term floor - in the 1780/70s, in order to begin some degree of significant bounce..back into the low sp'1800s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, whilst Oil reflects the broader market, -1.0%. Despite weak equities, VIX is fractionally lower.


sp'60min


sp'weekly7b


Summary

*weekly7b' is the most bearish outlook I can come up with right now, and as I will be noting...if 1850 is a key intermediate top, then in theory (based on previous big cycles) we should hit the lower weekly bol..currently 1682..but rising 10/15pts a week.
--

It is notable that despite the lower indexes...VIX is moderately red.

Best case downside for the bears right now...by early Tuesday...sp'1770s...with VIX 19/20..before the 'stupid bounce'.

Notable weakness: TWTR, -7%
Strength: CAT +4.4%, RIG +1.3%

--
time for tea :)

12.01pm  It takes the sp' -10pts..to get the VIX to turn positive.

Bears are getting a chance to tighten stops here...considering King O' is talking tomorrow..with sig' QE-pomo, and then Yellen on Wednesday....

Be careful out there!


12.19pm.. the bull maniacs really must hold 1770/65 in the current wave..or..there is risk of a straight down move to the 200 day MA @ 1700...and that'd result in a likely hit of the lower weekly bol' by next week.

Look to the VIX...if it gets stuck in the 19s.....with sp' levelling 1770/65..that is a probable short term floor.


12.26pm..okay..now this is important...

R2K,...breaks the ramp from Nov'2012...its over....


Target IS the lower weekly bol..which would indeed equate to sp'1720/00 within no more than a few weeks.