Tuesday 7 January 2014

Awaiting new equity highs

A third day of weak minor chop for the US equity markets, and indeed, such price action does nothing to dent the bigger up trends. A weekly close in the sp'1850s looks viable, with the 1860/80 zone viable before end January.


sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook



sp'weekly'4 - hyper- bullish outlook


Summary

The point I would like to emphasise with the weekly'8 chart, is that if you consider we are now due a sub'4 wave, then we should be seeking similar price action to last Aug/Sept - aka, no more than 55/65pts downside in late Jan/early Feb.

If we can manage to hit 1855/65 within the next few weeks, I'd have to guess, the sp'1810/00 zone will hold as support in the next down wave.

From there...easy upside into the 1900s by late spring. The only remaining issue is whether the big 2000 threshold will be hit before we see a grander giant wave'3 top (or however you want to name it), somewhere in the 1950/2050 zone.

From there..if the bears are lucky, we'll see an unexpected (at least to the cheer leaders on clown finance TV) 2-4 month wave lower.


Looking ahead

There isn't much due tomorrow. Just intl. trade data, along with two of the lesser Fed officials.

*Tuesday will see the first sig' QE-pomo of the year, around $2-3bn.
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Goodnight from London