Wednesday 29 January 2014

2pm update - here comes the Fed

Time for another FOMC announcement. Market consensus is for QE taper'2 of $10bn, taking monthly QE down to $65bn a month..starting next week. Ironically, if the Fed don't cut QE, it'd likely greatly concern and upset both the US..and world capital markets.


sp'60min


Summary

The levels are clear...

If take out morning low 1774..then test of the very important 1767/65 area. If that fails..then it gets really fast and dirty in market land....with a drop to 1705/1680

Otherwise...another push higher..best case 1810/15..before a rollover..and then a test of the mid 1760s.

In either case...the mid 1760s look to be tested...whether today..tomorrow..or next week
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...standing by!


2.01pm.. TAPER 2...is a GO...  $10bn..cut starting next Monday.

Markets reacting with some relief..with uncertainty out of the way.

Metals...real twitchy...still vulnerable to turning red this hour.

...so far.. the 1774 morning low is holding...and there is very high risk of late day ramp.


2.05pm...VIX cooling down..as uncertainty is gone....  Gold sure looks vulnerable.


2.13pm... Market on the edge of breaking <1774..if so...then 1765....

Things sure are borderline. Bulls need to appear soon..or this market is in trouble for the remainder fo the week.

VIX +9%...real choppy...  Gold...holding moderate gains...

Still no clear direction yet.   !!!


2.18pm...bears running out of time here...longer we remain >1774... the more likely we snap higher into the close....

BREAK 1773... new intraday low...door is open to 1767/65 in the remainder of today.

1771..on our way to test 1767/65 zone....
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2.20pm... a CLEAR break of the Monday low....so..can the bulls hold the CRITICAL 1767/75 zone..or ..straight down to 1705/1680...within 'days'?

The safer 'chase it lower' level is on any break <1765. Clearly, the earlier ABC count is now invalid.


2.29pm. crazy market...trying to put in a spike floor.... equity bulls need >1785 to rip out of the danger zone. VIX is churning largely sideways, +7%


2.36pm...market battling to retake the hourly 10MA of 1785.... if broken..then upside to the low 1800s is again viable.

Crazy day..not least since the Monday low was taken out...only to whipsaw back upward. VIX still cooling down. +6%


2.44pm fiercely tricky day....with that FAILED break <1772...only to whipsaw higher. Bears are likely exhausted in this move....bulls have the ball... 1st and 10...right ?