Wednesday 29 January 2014

1pm update - chop ahead of the FOMC

The market is remaining in a standard holding pattern, ahead of the FOMC announcement at 2pm. Metals are moderately higher, but look especially vulnerable this afternoon. VIX is holding gains of around 10% in the mid 17s, but a daily close in the 15s is very viable.


sp'60min


Summary

..nothing to add, other than likely C wave upside..baring a break <1774.

--
*just noticed a VIX update from optionmonster..the first in a few weeks...



Bizarrely..its like a flashback to 2005, with screen res' of 240x, urgh
--

One hour to go...

*again, for the record, my guess... Taper'2 of $10bn, to a mere $65bn a month. Hey, thats only $780bn annual rate..still greater than the 2008 emergency 'stop the end of the world' TARP program, lol
---

More than anything, look for the metals to get smacked lower, whilst equities might jump..and make a vain play for the low sp'1800s.

As ever though...it'll probably take until 2.30pm to discern a clear direction.
-


1.16pm continued chop...in the 1780s.

Bears must be mindful...unless <1774...real risk of a jump into the low 1800s by the close..regardless of taper..or not. 


1.32pm Notable strength in Natural Gas.. DGAZ +13%..so..nat gas prices must be around 4.5% higher today.