Volatility jumps into year end

With equities sliding into the yearly close, the VIX managed the third consecutive net daily gain, settling higher by a rather powerful 20.6% @ 19.20. It is notable that the VIX high for 2014 was 31.06... the highest level since late 2011.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*to be clear, I was surprised at the VIX action today.... a little further upside was understandable... but the move into the upper 19s was unexpected.
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Since it is year end... lets take a look at the VIX on the giant monthly cycle

High for the year.. 31.06 (along with sp'1820).. the highest level since late 2011. Monthly bollinger bands are now very tight.. as they were across 2004-2007.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

The trading year comes to a close, with equities settling New years eve with somewhat significant declines, sp -21pts @ 2058. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside to the sp'2130/50 zone... with VIX cooling back to the 12/11s.


sp'60min

Summary

...and another year comes to a close.

Not all have made it through this year. Some blogs/sites have closed... a fair few traders (not least those of the bearish persuasion) have walked away in disgust... but I remain...as do .... YOU.

Congrats to all those who made it through another year in the world's most twisted and rigged casino.

No doubt.. 2015 will be even more crazy...


Sincerely... best wishes for 2015

PD
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Since it is year end.. a FULL set of updates to wrap up the day... and year.

more later... on the VIX at 6pm EST

3pm update - the closing hour of 2014

Regardless of the exact close, it has been another year for the bull maniacs. There have been some very notable geo-political issues.. but none of them have been enough to do sustainable damage to the broader upward trend from Oct'2011. Now the real question is... .what about next year?


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

... suffice to say.... an hour left.

The action in the VIX is surprising.. although we're now at the top of a gap zone... is that it?

There is an equity gap at sp'2015, but I just can't see that being filled in the current down wave... not before sp'2130/50s.

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3.16pm... Market making a play to turn.. from sp'2065... along with VIX 19.30s... a very viable floor is in... 

3.42pm  chop chop.... sp'2066... VIX 19s....  well, at least its not a boring end to the year.


--
back at the close... to wrap up the day... and indeed...the entire trading year.

2pm update - afternoon chop

Another minor down cycle have broken a short term low of sp'2074... along with the VIX spiking to 17.73. Overall though, it remains 'minor chop' for the broader market. There is very notable strength for retail stocks. Metals and Energy remain very weak.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

For the gold bugs.... a lousy end to the year.... Gold around $1180... downside target remains the giant $1000 threshold.. if not 'prime zone' of 900/875 by mid 2015.
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Notable strength: HD +1.2%... a monthly gain of around 7%... very impressive.
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Keep those end 2015 targets coming in.... See HERE... the list will be published New Years day.

back at 3pm

12pm update - holiday chop

US equities remain in minor holiday chop mode, sp +2pts @ 2082. Metals continue to unravel into year end, Gold -$12, with Silver -3.2%. Oil remains very weak, -1.0%. VIX is notably higher for the third day, as traders look to the next minor retrace sometime in Jan/Feb.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what is a naturally quiet day of  holiday chop.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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Don't forget to submit your end 2015 target... see HERE

time for lunch... back at 2pm

11am update - moderate gains

US equities are holding moderate gains... with the sp' @ 2084. VIX is notably higher for the third consecutive day... as traders start to ponder the next retrace in Jan/Feb. Metals continue to weaken, Gold -$13, with Silver -3.3%. Oil remains sig' lower, -1.5%.


GLD, monthly2

SLV, monthly2

Summary

*taking a look at the metals this hour... across the year.

Another rough year for those in gold bug land. Gold is broadly flat, but Silver/Copper both sig' lower.

The bearish counts for GLD/SLV are broadly unchanged from spring 2012. I'm looking for a key floor in summer 2015.... and then... UP UP UP.

More on those later... on my metal page!
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Suffice to say... equity market still looks set for the sp'2100s.... prime zone is 2130/50 by late January.

10am update - opening chop

US equities open a little higher, but there seems to be a lack of buying power... but then.. it is holiday trading! Metals are weak, Gold -$5, with Silver -1.8%. Energy remains in collapse mode. Nat' gas -2.8%, whilst Oil breaks a new cycle low, -1.8% in the $52.50s.


sp'60min

USO, daily

Summary

*Chicago PMI: 58.3... rather worse than the expected 60.8
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A bad start to the last day of the year for the precious metals... and Oil.

The minor threat of a year end close in the sp'2100s... now seemingly completely out of range.

Hourly cycles are still offering another major up cycle.. but that looks set to not occur until Friday.

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YOU have the entire day to submit a target for end 2015...

See HERE for details :)

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2085. Metals are weak, Gold -$5. Oil has broken new cycle lows, -1.3%.. set for the $50 threshold in January... and probably $45/35 before flooring.


sp'monthly

Summary

*I'll start the last day of the year.. with a giant monthly chart.. to highlight the year.
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It has been another crazy year. Bears have been teased a few times... but without question.. a SIXTH year for the bull maniacs.

The sp'500 has only seen 3 net monthly declines this year... and only the January decline even rated as 'borderline significant'.

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awaiting jobs data and Chicago PMI

King dollar remains King

Despite relentless protestations from the 'dollar doomers', the US currency has built a solid trading floor across the last seven years. The USD has recently achieved a decisive breakout, and looks set for the giant 100 level in 2015. From there.... 120 and beyond.

USD, monthly, 15yr

Summary

Little to add... I merely wanted to highlight the USD to close today.
--

I could cite Schiff.. along with the other 'usual suspects'. None of them get it yet... despite a break into the DXY 90s. Its pretty weird.. but oh well... they'll never be bullish dollar... its simply not in their range of 'available outlooks/scenarios'.


After all, would you rather hold Yen or Euros?

No doubt some would say 'no FIAT for me!', but seriously... the bigger picture is clear. Euro/Yen will continue to weaken against the USD, not least since the BoJ and ECB are both intent on QE 'until everything is fixed'.
-


Looking ahead

The last day of 2014 will see a trio of econ-data points... jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales. Market is seeking a PMI of 60.8... which is considerably far above from the recessionary threshold of 50.

*for the super equity bulls out there (sp'2500 and above)... they should be seeking a United States PMI in the 70s in 2015... not least due to very low energy costs.. which is extremely bullish for the broader economy.
--


One day left of 2014

It has been another crazy year in market land. I could say a lot more.. but I will leave that for tomorrow.

*there is still time to submit your end 2015 target.. see HERE
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Goodnight from London

Daily Wrap

US equities saw moderate weakness across the day, sp -10pts @ 2080. Yet the broader trend remains bullish into the new year. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are already offering the sp'2130s, and with the R2K having broken out... there is nothing in the near term for the bears to look forward to.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Little to add, on what was a mere minor down cycle, in a holiday shortened week.
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VIX continues to claw higher

VIX'daily3

Despite the second consecutive daily gain, VIX still looks set to decline to the 12/11s in the current multi-week equity up wave (from sp'1972).
--

Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -10pts @ 2080. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. The smaller hourly cycles are suggestive of another wave higher into mid January... to the sp'2130/50 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

A touch of renewed weakness into the close, but really...  moderate declines are nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.

.... just one trading day left of the year........... thank the gods!

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a daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - minor chop into the close

Equities remain moderately weak, a net daily gain looks highly unlikely. Regardless of the close, the broader up trend from sp'1972 (Dec'16th)... continues. Metals are cooling from their earlier highs... Gold +$16. Oil remains choppy, +0.5%


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what was just another quiet day of pre-holiday trading.

Things really won't get going until Mon' Jan 5th... a full week... in a new year :)
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*still time to submit your end-2015 sp'500 prediction.. see HERE for details.

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daily wrap at 8pm EST

2pm update - moderately weak

There is no sign of a latter day rally, and market has broken new intraday lows of sp'2079... ohh the humanity, a red close? Metals are broadly holding gains, Gold +$17. Oil remains in chop mode.. having broken support yesterday, +0.4%.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is starting to rollover, but I can't take any of this seriously.. not least with it being a holiday week.
--

No sign of buyers today.. but then.. neither are there many sellers out there.

It is merely a minor down wave.. before sp'2100s.. which are STILL possible tomorrow.
--

Notable weakness: momo stocks.. TWTR -1.9%, FB, -1.1%

12pm update - chop chop

Equities remain moderately weak... with a very viable latter day rally. Metals are holding strong gains, Gold +$19, with Silver +3.2%. Oil has already turned a touch red, having earlier bounced by around 0.6%. VIX is higher for a second day, but overall.. showing no real upside power.


sp'60min

Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise, it remains a case of 'what about the recent breakout in the R2K?'

By definition, it is an extremely bullish signal.. and it utterly bemuses me how some are calling for major downside.. even to the sp'1800s in early 2015.
-

Notable weakness, CHK -1.7%... not surprising, with Nat' gas still falling

DRYS -7.0%.. no doubt, the penny share buyers are meddling a lot in this one lately... price action sure suggests that is the case.

--
VIX update from Mr T.


--
time for tea... back at 2pm

11am update - time for a turn

US equities are moderately lower, but look set for a latter day rally. The sp'2100s are still on course, not least with the recent breakout in the R2K. Oil remains choppy, and has already started to cool from the earlier high. Metals are building gains, Gold +$21... but having been broadly choppy since September.


sp'60min

Summary

So... anyone want to get overly excited about this mornings minor down cycle? Seriously, any top callers out there today?

Market looks set for at least some degree of latter day rally... as has often been the case across the last few years.

Notable weakness: TWTR -2.3%.... its been a rough year for that stock...

TWTR, daily

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time to cook!

10am update - much like yesterday

US equities open much in the style of yesterday morning.. a little lower, but with declines that look likely to be fully negated within a few hours. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$15. Oil is seeing moderate chop, +0.5%... but looking highly vulnerable to losing the $50 psy level in the near term.


sp'60min

USO, 60min'2

Summary

*oil bouncing... price structure is a clear bear flag on the hourly... now stuck against the old broken floor. 
--

This remains classic holiday trading conditions (Thursday is closed of course)... and this is no market for anyone trying to capture minor down cycles. To me... seems a complete waste of time.

--
time to shop... back soon.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2084. Metals are rebounding, Gold +$15. Oil remains weak, -0.8%... having yesterday failed to hold the recent $53.60 floor.


sp'daily5

Summary

So... a little lower, but like yesterday, there is ZERO reason why this will turn into anything significant. Market is still headed to the sp'2100s...and far beyond.

As ever... 'don't get lost in the minor noise'... and that sure applies to 2015.. as much as it has this year.
-

Notable early strength: GDX +2.0%, reacting to the early metals jump... but that looks unlikely to sustain itself for more than a day or two.
-

Have a good Tuesday!

Oil breaks a new cycle low

Whilst the broader US market remains contentedly climbing into year end, there was notable weakness in the energy market. WTIC Oil broke a new multi-year low of $52.90. The door is now open to the $50 psy' level, after that... $45.


WTIC, weekly, 3yr

WTIC, monthly'2

Summary

Suffice to say, the recent micro double low in the mid $53s was rather decisively taken out today, and bodes for continued downside across much of January. I'm somewhat surprised, although US dollar strength was always going to remain a major hindrance to any near term bounce.


Looking ahead

Tuesday has Case Shiller HPI, and consumer confidence. In the scheme of things though... neither are particularly important enough to significantly move the market, in what is just another quiet holiday trading week.
--

Still time to submit a target

There are still a few days to submit your best guess for end 2015..   see HERE
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Goodnight from an icy London

Daily Wrap

US equities broke another pair of new historic highs, sp'2093, with R2K @ 1220. Near term outlook remains bullish into January. All the bigger trading cycles are offering sp'2130s before the next opportunity of a minor down wave. A break under sp'2k looks unlikely for a very considerable time.


sp'daily5

R2K, daily

Summary

Little to add.

What should be clear.. the breakout in the R2K is an extremely important event, and bodes for broad upside across much... if not all of 2015.

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Despite the market managing two new index highs, the VIX opened higher, and held moderate gains into the close, settling +5.1% @ 15.24

VIX, daily3

VIX remains relatively subdued, and considering it is a holiday trading week, VIX will probably melt lower later this week. The 12/11s certainly seem viable. 
-

a little more later...

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1.9pts @ 2090 (new high 2093). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad upside into January. The daily/weekly/monthly cycles are all offering the sp'2130s in first half of January.


sp'60min

Summary

*notable new historic highs in the sp'500, but arguably even more important.. the R2K (1220).
--

Little to add, on what remains another shortened holiday trading week. Things really won't get back to normal until Jan 5'th.
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a daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - eight days up for the R2K

The R2K - having lagged for the entire year, is set for the eighth consecutive net daily gain.. having broken a new historic high of 1220. VIX is holding moderate gains of 7% in the mid 15s, but these remain subdued holiday trading conditions. Metals and Oil are both very weak.


R2K, daily

Summary

More and more are starting to realise the significance of last Friday's breakout in the R2K.

Today is the 8th day higher, with the 1300s on the way.... and beyond.

If you assume R2K 1500... then sp'2500 is the natural 'baseline upside target' for next year.

--
No doubt the crash callers will be out in force across Jan/February.
-
Notable weakness, GDX -2.4%... pressured by Gold -$14
-

back at the close

2pm update - Oil fails to hold the floor

Whilst the broader equity market continues to churn... there is notable weakness in the energy market, with a new multi-month low for WTIC Oil of $52.90. Metals remain similarly weak, Gold -$13.


USO, 60min

Summary

With the micro double floor of Dec 16/18, now taken out... next downside support is the $50 psy level, but many are obviously looking for the mid $40s.

Regardless of today's close... the downward trend since June... has resumed.

Notable weakness, TWTR -2.6%
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back at 3pm

12pm update - back to micro churn

After some opening minor chop, US equities are back to micro churn mode... with the usual underlying upward bias. The sp'2100s are coming, the only issue is at what level will the market get stuck in January. There is notable weakness in the metals, Gold -$14.. impacting the miners, GDX -1.6%


sp'60min

GDX, daily

Summary

So.. a new high in the sp'500 and R2K...  other than that.. it remains a very quiet day.

Naturally, the maniacs on Zerohedge are getting overly excited about the latest Greek developments. After all, the end of the financial system is imminent, right?

--
VIX update from Mr T.



--
time for tea..... back at 2pm

11am update - new week, new highs

US equities continue to claw broadly higher, with new historic highs in the Sp'500 (2093), and the R2K (1220). VIX is holding moderate gains, but the 12/11s still look due in the current multi-week up wave. Oil is back to flat.. whilst Gold is on the slide, -$13.


sp'daily

GLD, daily

Summary

Little to add....

Notable strength: BAC +1%... in the low 18s... cruising to $20.. and beyond. 2015 will be the year for financials.

--
time for an early lunch

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with some minor chop. The R2K continues to be very notable though, battling upward.. to a new historic high of 1220, near term upside looks to be the 1230s. Oil is holding minor gains, +0.4%. VIX opens higher by 11% to 16.14, but is rapidly cooling.


R2K, daily

VIX'daily3

Summary

*a notable opening black-fail candle on the VIX to begin the week. It does not bode well for anyone looking for sig' weakness into year end.
--

Little to add.. on what will likely a rather quiet day... in what is just another holiday week.
-

Notable weakness: GDX -1.5%, as the metals start to weaken, Gold -$7

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2082. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$1. Oil is battling to claw away from the key low of $53.60... +0.7% in the $55s.


sp'daily5

Summary

Just 3 days left of the year...

Despite the likely open, there is still zero reason why the market won't continue broadly climbing across this shortened week. The sp'2100s look due.. if not the 2130/50 zone.
--

*Greek MPs did not give Samaras the necessary support. A general election is now due in January. No doubt, that will rattle some in the EU.

--

*notable early gains... oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both higher by over 1%.

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

US equity indexes climbed for the second consecutive week. Net weekly gains ranged from 2.3% (Trans), 1.6% (R2K), to 0.9% (NYSE Comp, Sp'500, Nasdaq). Outlook into January remains bullish, with the next soft target zone of sp'2130/50. Considering the bullish break in the R2K, a straight run to the 2300s is viable within 3-4 months.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

A second weekly gain... 18pts (0.9%), with a new historic high of 2092. The short term trend has accelerated, the 2100s are due, whether by year end.. or early January.

The weekly/monthly cycles are both offering the 2130s by mid January... 2150/60s late Jan/early Feb. The 2200s look more likely after another minor pull back of 3-5%. The 2300s look very viable by late spring, with 2500s sometime in summer 2015.


Nasdaq Comp'

The tech' has broken a post 2009 high of 4806.. a mere 326pts (6.8%) below the March 2000 'tech bubble high' of 5132. That now seems likely to be hit in spring 2015. Any monthly close in the 5200s will open up the next primary target of 7k.. which is a huge 46% higher.


Dow

The mighty Dow gained a very respectable 248pts (1.4%) this week. There is near term upside to the 18300s, and 18500 by late January. Next key fib' level is 18974, which seems viable in the spring. The next giant psy' level is 20k.. which appears likely into the summer.


NYSE Comp'

The master index gained around 0.9% this week, having broken the 11k threshold (briefly) on Friday. Next upside target are the 11300s.


R2K

The second market leader has seen a critical breakout to the upside, having been stuck for the year. The double top of March/July - 1212/13 has been decisively closed over, with a new historic high of 1217.

The breakout in the R2K is arguably the most significant bullish event in the past few months.. perhaps even the year. Next upside target are the 1300s... the 1500s by end 2015 look very viable.


Trans

The 'old leader' is leading the way, with another strong weekly gain of 2.3%. The 9500s look likely in Jan/Feb... before the next possible retrace. A break <9000 in the next wave lower looks highly unlikely. The giant 10k threshold looks a reasonable target for 2015, although the transports stocks will be somewhat laggy if Oil has seen a mid term floor in the $53s.


Summary

Suffice to say.. a second week higher, with new historic highs not just in the Dow and sp'500... but far more importantly... in the R2K.

Further upside into Jan' 2015 looks highly probable. At best, equity bears might achieve a few weeks of downside, starting somewhere in the 2125/50 zone. On no outlook does sub sp'2k look viable for a very considerable time.


Looking ahead

Again, it will be a short trading week... the only notable data is Chicago PMI on New Years eve.

M - -
T - case shiller, consumer con'
W - jobless claims, Chicago PMI, pending home sales
T - CLOSED
F - *First trading day of 2015*    PMI/ISM manu', construction spend'
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Podcast'5... by yours truly.


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back on Monday