US equities look set for broad upside into spring 2014, but what then? The current multi-month rally is now 25 months in duration..and by next spring, we will be more than overdue a major correction - probably on the order of 17/22%
sp'weekly9 - fib levels
sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook
First...I should clarify my upside target zone for spring 2014.
Dow 17000/500, which should equate to sp'500, somewhere in the 1950/2050 zone.
weekly'9 chart above...assuming we max out around 2000. Taking the
starting point of Oct'2011..first major fib...0.38%..would take us down
to the mid 1600s. That would be a VERY strong and significant wave
Summer/autumn 2011...as summer/autumn 2014 ?
than anything, I would be looking for the next major wave lower to be
somewhat in style to what we saw in 2011. It will probably take a few
months to form a clear top, and then only 1-2 months for the major
downside to play out.
As many of the chart-cyclists are mentioning, Aug/September 2014 would be a key time zone to look for
the market to see a major low put in.
there...a hyper-ramp into late 2015/early 2016. For me, the only issue
is whether the indexes then battle to sp'2500...or much...much higher.
has an array of econ-data...there is certainly something for Mr Market
to use as an excuse for further weakness..with easy downside to the
sp'1795/90 zone. Of course, since Thursday is closed, volume will likely be even less than today.
*there is no sig' QE-pomo due until at least Friday. The new QE schedule is due Wed' 2pm.
closing hour of today was certainly fun to watch and be part of.
Hopefully, equity bears can see a little follow through for the rest of
Goodnight from London