sp'weekly9 - fib levels
sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook
Summary
First...I should clarify my upside target zone for spring 2014.
Dow 17000/500, which should equate to sp'500, somewhere in the 1950/2050 zone.
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For weekly'9 chart above...assuming we max out around 2000. Taking the starting point of Oct'2011..first major fib...0.38%..would take us down to the mid 1600s. That would be a VERY strong and significant wave lower.
Summer/autumn 2011...as summer/autumn 2014 ?
More than anything, I would be looking for the next major wave lower to be somewhat in style to what we saw in 2011. It will probably take a few months to form a clear top, and then only 1-2 months for the major downside to play out.
As many of the chart-cyclists are mentioning, Aug/September 2014 would be a key time zone to look for the market to see a major low put in.
From there...a hyper-ramp into late 2015/early 2016. For me, the only issue is whether the indexes then battle to sp'2500...or much...much higher.
Looking ahead
Wednesday has an array of econ-data...there is certainly something for Mr Market to use as an excuse for further weakness..with easy downside to the sp'1795/90 zone. Of course, since Thursday is closed, volume will likely be even less than today.
*there is no sig' QE-pomo due until at least Friday. The new QE schedule is due Wed' 2pm.
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The closing hour of today was certainly fun to watch and be part of. Hopefully, equity bears can see a little follow through for the rest of the week.
Goodnight from London