Thursday 18 July 2013

Volatility...flat

Whilst the main indexes again closed moderately higher, the VIX was battling to hold the 13s. However, with poor earnings from GOOG and MSFT, the VIX battled upward in the brief 15mins of AH action, and closed effectively flat @ 13.77


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

Daily charts are pretty clear, despite the occasional hollow red (reversal candle), the broad trend is for lower volatility.

Equity bears should be seeking a daily close above the declining 10MA - currently in the low 14s.

Lower bollinger on the daily is now 11.76, and if the sp' is trading in the 1740/60s by early August, VIX 11s look viable.
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Underlying MACD cycle ticked higher for a sixth consecutive day. For the bears, that is arguably the only early warning sign out there right now.

more later..on the indexes