sp'weekly8 - mid-term outlook
sp'monthly6c - outlook into 2016
Summary
Broad outlook is for further short term equity gains...some weakness in late Aug/September, and then renewed (and rather powerful) upside across the festive period and into the 'green shoots' of spring 2014.
Despite the chatter, the QE continues in full, and this market has NEVER seen a significant pull back whilst QE is ongoing.
Best case for the bears right now, sp'1750..and then a swift drop back to 1600/1550 by late September. Yet from there, I'd have to believe the market will just ramp right back..and keep on pushing.
Looking ahead
There is the usual weekly jobless data, but also phil' fed and leading indicators. However, once again, the Bernanke will be the centre of attention, this time sitting in front of the US senate.
*next sig' QE is this Friday.
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I am indeed still expecting sp'1700s, and that could be as soon as tomorrow, not least if the market uses any corp' earnings data as an excuse to believe that 'all is well' in the US economy.
For the few remaining bears out there, it effectively remains a case of being patient...really....really patient.
Goodnight from London