Thursday 18 July 2013

An early August turn?

The market continues to battle higher, with the R2K and Transports still leading the way. Sp'1700s look viable in the very near term, the only issue is where does the current multi-week up wave complete? Best guess...the market maxes out in early August.


sp'weekly8 - mid-term outlook



sp'monthly6c - outlook into 2016


Summary

Broad outlook is for further short term equity gains...some weakness in late Aug/September, and then renewed (and rather powerful) upside across the festive period and into the 'green shoots' of spring 2014.

Despite the chatter, the QE continues in full, and this market has NEVER seen a significant pull back whilst QE is ongoing.

Best case for the bears right now, sp'1750..and then a swift drop back to 1600/1550 by late September. Yet from there, I'd have to believe the market will just ramp right back..and keep on pushing.


Looking ahead

There is the usual weekly jobless data, but also phil' fed and leading indicators. However, once again, the Bernanke will be the centre of attention, this time sitting in front of the US senate.

*next sig' QE is this Friday.
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I am indeed still expecting sp'1700s, and that could be as soon as tomorrow, not least if the market uses any corp' earnings data as an excuse to believe that 'all is well' in the US economy.

For the few remaining bears out there, it effectively remains a case of being patient...really....really patient.

Goodnight from London