Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Awaiting the Bernanke...again

The US market closed lower for the first time in nine days, although volume remains 'summer light'. The clown finance TV networks will no doubt give the Bernanke blanket coverage both tomorrow and Thursday morning, as he testifies to the US House/Senate.

sp'weekly4b - hyper-bullish, with fib levels


Regarding the single chart above, it is part of the hyper-bullish outlook, which is seeking broad upside into spring 2014.

There is a fib' retrace already added - even though a clear top is clearly not yet in place. My current best guess is that we'll max out in the 1740s. So, a .38 fib retrace (from the June 2012 low of sp'1266) would give the 1560s. Interestingly, that will be where the lower weekly bollinger is in September.

Broadly, best guess is 1740s...then 1560s....before much higher levels into year end, and continuing into spring 2014.

Broad trend remains...UP

The following is indeed an extremely simple chart, but it does help make things clear...

sp'monthly3, rainbow.

Primary trend remains to the upside, and after the blue candle of June - when the sp' floored @ 1560, we're now back to outright bullish. We're currently stuck near the upper bollinger of sp'1675, although in early August, that might have risen to around 1700

The monthly 10MA will be 1550/60 in Aug/September, and that should be the primary target for the bears in the next multi-week down cycle.

Looking ahead

Tomorrow (and Thursday) will be all about the Bernanke. It should also be noted that the Fed beige book is issued at 2pm, and that is certainly something the market takes note of.

*no sig' QE until this Friday opex.

I will again consider an index/Oil long position tomorrow, but really, I'm just so tired of the current nonsense, and I might sit back until early August, and then look to launch a short position.

Goodnight from London


Video update from Oscar